Thursday, 24 October 2013

S&P 500 Strategy 24th October 2013




Strategy
Entry
Stop
1st Target
2nd Target
Long
1741.75
1737.75
1749.50
1751.75

Key Levels
1754.50
All Time High
1751.75
High of the day
1749.50
R1/ Yesterday's Open
1741.75
Pivot/Yesterday's closing
1737.75
Tuesday's Open
1734.50
S1/Yesterday's LOD
1726.50
S2/ Previous All Time High
Review After the decision to re-open the government and raise the debt ceiling, the S&P 500 has climbed to make new all time highs at 1754.50 on Monday but experienced a decline yesterday when earning valuations were not up to the mark for investors notably Caterpillar Inc and Broadcom Corp. Even after lower than expected non-farm payrolls the market has continued to rally on expectations that tapering will not happen until next year or the FED might increase their asset purchases. The S&P 500 average price-to-earnings multiple was valued at 15.9x yesterday which is still below the levels seen in October 2007(16.5x) and March 2000(25.7x) and according to Alan Greenspan, we are actually at relatively low stock prices.
Strategy I have chosen to go long today and I have identified that entering long at the pivot which is also yesterday's closing is a good entry point as the market has not breached this level since the EU market opening. The opening of the non-farm payrolls day has been chosen as the stop for this strategy which means I have a bullish view for today's direction. We will look to book profits at our first target of 1749.50 which is also R1 and yesterday's open and our second target being 1751.75 which is the high of the day. Today's initial jobless claims number keeps a huge significance as the expected number is 320k which is lower than prev 358k.
Stop (Possible Cause) A higher than expected initial jobless claim number would trigger the stop and we would look for support at S1 or yesterday's low of the day.

Friday, 18 October 2013

US Strategy 16th October 2013


Strategy
Entry
Stop
1st Target
2nd Target
Long
1697.50
1693.25
1706.25
1717.50


Key Levels
1726.75
All Time High
1717.50
R2/Post FOMC Clsing
1706.25
Yesterday's Open
1697.50
2nd Aug Closing
1693.25
Pre-FOMC Support
1683.75
Resistance turned Supp
1675.00
Oct High-Low 50% Fib
Review With the US political unrest, the continued government shutdown and just a day away from the debt ceiling deadline, we have seen the S&P 500 drop after a four day rally. Senate majority leader Harry Reid rejected a House plan to halt the fiscal impasse and Senate leaders stopped talks on a bill that would fund the government through Jan 15, 2014 and suspend the U.S. debt limit until Feb 7 which sent the S&P 500 back down to 1689.50 but talks have re-opened and carries positive sentiment that an agreement is within reach. The four day rally was an optimistic view that lawmakers would indeed reach a deal to prevent a government default which now seems to be losing ground as we approach the deadline with the S&P 500 yesterday closing at 1692. Investors will be looking to see the Senate come through and raise the debt ceiling by today.
Strategy Carrying from the public's sentiment, there is genuine believe that the debt ceiling crisis will be averted by today and house representatives will look to re-open government. The strategy for today is to go long at 1697.50 which was the 2nd of August closing which was the highest close before the No Taper announcement. We will look to book profits at the 1st target being yesterday's Open of 1706.25 followed by our 2nd target at R2. In the likely scenario of an agreement being decided, we feel reaching these targets may well happen. Companies like IBM and Pepsi Co. will also be announcing their Q3 results which might stir up movement going into the cash open.
Stop (Possible Cause) A break below the Pre-FOMC meeting may well start a downtrend as seen previously in early October. This can be triggered with a failure by the Senate to come to an agreement in time.



Debt Ceiling Crisis on S&P 500

S&P 500
If in the case the US fails to meet its debt obligations, it will be a catastrophic event not just for the US economy but for the global economy as well. With countries like China ($1.3Tln holder) and Japan ($1.1Tln holder) that have heavily invested in the US national debt are greatly concerned. 

The US government is scheduled to pay debt service , social security benefits, medicare, military payments and according to Lew the treasury has $30Bln of cash left by Oct 17th to meet these commitments. The treasury will need to borrow more to meet its liabilities or severely contract its spending which would in turn negatively impact the GDP. This event would create a liquidity issue leading to a credit crunch where banks would have to write down securities on their books that are losing value and face capital shortfalls. And this time around the government wouldn't have the cash to rescue the banks. 

The default could potentially mean that Interest rates including mortgage rates would skyrocket, credit spreads would widen, the US dollar would severely devalue and household consumption would dramatically fall. With borrowing costs increasing, US company's earnings would start to diminish and hence the S&P 500 index would lose ground. In my view the S&P could reach to 1600 or below if the default happens.

Thursday, 7 March 2013

Why is Retirement Planning Important?



Working in the capacity as an investment advisor, I have been asked multiple times by many clients and prospective clients on how they can manage their financials to make their retirement as stress-free as possible, not to depend on their children and live a comfortable life in the end. Well today I would just like to bring to your attention on why retirement planning is important and how can an individual save for his/her retirement.

I was attending a seminar here in Lahore (Pakistan) on pension schemes being offered by various asset management companies and a dialog from the speaker really moved me which was and I quote “If you are failing to plan, you are planning to FAIL!” If one really pays attention to this quote, you will soon realize that your future should be important to you and planning for it should be on your agenda. No matter how old you are, it is important to pay attention towards your retirement funds. When you are young, you may not even think of retiring or getting older and may not realize the importance of this aspect of financial planning. This is where a young person like myself should start thinking about investing in a pension scheme. Your pension may be your sole income when you get older and therefore should be a priority in your younger years. If the company you work for does not have a pension plan, then you should start investing on your own so that you do have an income to fall back on. It is important to have a pension so that when you reach the age of retirement you will have enough money coming in each month to cover the cost of your bills and allow you to live comfortably. You want to spend time with your family and have money enough to travel if you wish.
 







In the US, there are pension plans in the form of 401K plan and in the UK there is a national pension program by the name of The State Pension, but sadly in Pakistan up till 2007 there were no pension plans being offered to the general public. Living in Pakistan has its downfalls in the shape of negligible pension fund schemes offered by private institutions and government sector pension not being sufficient to cover basic expenses. An individual like myself should consider other options on how to save for retirement. There are two ways in which you can set up a pension scheme account for yourself. The first method is fairly straight forward, in which you save for example 10% of your monthly salary and put it aside in an interest bearing account which should accumulate a fair amount at retirement. The other way is the one I would advise all my clients and prospective clients to take which is a defined contribution plan. A defined contribution plan is a plan whereby the employee himself directs the employer where he would like the firm to contribute towards his pension plans. In case the investor is not a salaried individual or an entrepreneur, s/he can set up a private pension scheme.  One of the advantages in living in Pakistan now is that, major asset management companies are offering personalized private pension plans where an individual would select his or her asset allocation amongst three board categories i.e. equity, debt/income and money market. Equity being the most riskiest offering highest returns and money market being the least riskiest offering nominal return in line with the inflation rate. The overall target of these schemes is have a good inflation adjusted return so that once a person retires, he may live comfortably. These private pension schemes are helping individuals in our state to create a better retirement for themselves.
I would like to take this opportunity and explain to you the power of compounding and why you must start saving for your retirement at an early age. Let’s take an example to understand this phenomena better.
Mr. X is currently 25 years old
Mr. X wishes to retire at the age of 60.
Mr. X has 35 years to retire
If Mr. X were to save Rs. 5,000 a month for the next 35 years, given that his retirement fund grows at the rate of 13%, Mr. X will have Rs. 42,159,195
Whereas if Mr. X were 45 years old, he would had to save Rs. 76,691 in order to reach the same amount keeping other variables constant.

There are some key facts you will need to consider before setting up your retirement fund which are as follows:
      1)      Your current age
      2)      Expected retirement age
      3)      Life expectancy
      4)      Years after retirement
      5)      Current earnings
      6)      Expected annual growth (in %) in income
      7)      Rate of return on retirement fund
      8)      Inflation rate
      9)      Inflation adjusted rate of return (Real rate of Return)

After calculating the above factors, you will need to find out the amount required to save in the retirement fund. The components involved in deriving this figure are:
      1)      Number of years to retirement
      2)      Rate of return during accumulation phase
      3)      Any existing pool of money set aside for the retirement fund

The motive behind listing these components is to explain that it is not merely accumulating millions of Rupees for retirement rather the right retirement fund is one which helps you maintain your standard of living even after retirement.

A word of caution to all investors seeking to invest in their retirement is that, contribute each month / quarterly or annually. You may think that skipping a period of contribution will not make a difference, you might be wrong. Systematic investing instills discipline and this is the key to accumulating a good retirement fund. Planning and saving for your retirement is an ongoing process and it does require discipline, self-study and time. The earlier you start the better it is as you can gain from the power of compounding as well as aim for a high return. Once you start contributing to a personal pension fund, you don’t have to worry about losing your money. All the funds are held in a trust for you until you reach your retirement age. You can choose to receive your pension as a monthly income or you can choose to receive a lump sum payment. Please note that once you decide that you want to save for your retirement, you do need to seek the advice of a professional financial planner who can help you make the right choices and help you decide how much money you should invest in your pension by any frequency which best suits you.

Friday, 8 February 2013

Pakistani Capital Market Overview January 2013






Macroeconomic Review & Outlook:

  •          The year on year CPI for the month of January 2013 was 8.1% where as for the month of December 2012 it was 7.9%.

  •          The current account (CA) of Pakistan was boosted, courtesy of a tranche given by Competitiveness Support Fund (CSF) worth US$ 688m bringing the CA to US$ 250m for the first half of financial year 2013 (July'12-Dec'12).

  •          Foreign exchange reserves continued to remain under pressure due to financial account flows and debt repayments to the IMF.

  •          Borrowing from the banking system by the government for fiscal funding still continued and has reached PKR 667bn for the period July'12 to 25th of January 2013.


Outlook:-

  •          A further rate cut would not be possible given the deteriorating fiscal & external accounts, significant IMF payments which would result in a monetary tightening.


Equity Market Review & Outlook:

  •          The index experienced a brisk fall over a temporary political chaos and the PM's possible arrest only to recover the index in the latter half of the month.

  •          The index was up by 2% on a month on month basis.

  •          The participation in the index remained on the low side as the index attracted average daily volume of 106m shares in Jan'13 vs 160m shares in Dec'12.

  •          Foreign participation helped the index during the month with positive net inflows of US$ 15m.

  •          Electricity sector out-performed the market due to attractive valuations and healthy payouts. Banking sector was in line with the market performance.

  •          Currently market is valued at 7.2 times estimated earnings, offering 6.8% dividend yield.


Outlook:-

  •          Investors are waiting for the Dec-end results, expecting strong payouts from commercial banks, electricity, chemicals and oil & gas sectors.

  •          The mounting uncertainty of the political and macroeconomic position especially on the external front could make the market remain cautious in the short-term.


Money Market Review & Outlook:

  •          The short term rates remained on the higher side for the month owing to relatively tight liquidity position in the system.
  •          During the month, SBP continued to inject amounts through Open Market Operations to maintain liquidity.
  •          1 year PKRV rates adjusted downwards by 11 bps month on month to 9.2% while 10 year PKRV rates adjusted upwards by 10 bps month on month to 11.6% for the month of January 2013.
  •          The market has a mixed opinion on the upcoming monetary policy statement with the majority anticipating, no change in the discount rate.

Outlook:-

  •          In anticipation of no rate cut, possible rate hikes could emerge in 4-6 months.
  •          Yield curve has continued to steepen indicating increasing expectations of higher interest rates in the near future.
  •          Funds will look to invest in shortest treasury bills going forward.

Currency:

·         The rupee continued to depreciate during the month and lost 55 paisas in the interbank market closing at Rs. 97.17 / $ with open market rate closing at Rs. 99.50 / $.



 Sources:- 
www.mcbah.com
www.nafafunds.com
www.almeezangroup.com